Short answer: no end date you can plan around. The federal surtax regime on steel has been extended into 2027, and the orders behind it, SOR/2025-95 for US-origin steel and aluminum and SOR/2025-267 for steel derivative goods worldwide, remain in force. Importers hoping the problem quietly expires are, for now, hoping wrong.

The question behind the question

When an owner asks "do the surtaxes end soon?", they are usually really asking one of two things. Either "can I wait this out instead of restructuring my supply chain?", which is a sourcing question this page will not pretend to answer; or "should I wait before chasing refunds, in case it all goes away?", which has a clean answer: waiting costs money and gains nothing. Here is why.

If the surtaxes end tomorrow

Suppose a trade deal lifts every steel surtax next month. Three things would be true:

  • Future shipments stop paying. Good news, and worth nothing retroactively.
  • Everything you already paid stays paid unless claimed. A deal does not refund the past; only a claim does.
  • The claims deadline keeps running exactly as before: two years from each importation. Entries from March 2025 still die in March 2027 whether the surtax regime is alive or not.

If the surtaxes continue, as extended

Then every month adds new 25% charges to your covered entries, and beginning in early 2027 the oldest claims start expiring monthly off the back of the window. The pool of recoverable money grows at the front and burns at the back. The only variable you control is whether the back of the conveyor is being claimed before it falls off; the worked examples are here.

The planning takeaway

Treat the surtax's political future and your refund position as two separate files. The first is out of your hands. The second is entirely in them: the remission orders exist now, drawback exists now, your entries are sitting in CARM now, and each has a two-year fuse lit on its import date. Whether the regime ends in 2027 or runs longer, the rational move is identical, which is what makes this one of the few comfortable decisions in trade policy: claim what you are owed while it is still claimable. Start with the refund guide, or the surtax explainer if you are new to all of this.

Trade measures can change at any time; this page describes the position as of June 2026. The two-year claim rule and the recovery instruments link to their official sources throughout this site.

Common questions

If a trade deal removes the tariffs, do I lose my refunds?

No. Past overpayments remain refundable within two years of each importation. A deal stops future surtax; it does not return, or take away, what you already paid.

Should I wait to see what happens before auditing my entries?

Waiting has a direct cost once expiries begin in early 2027: every month of delay permanently expires roughly a month of the oldest claims. The refund position is the same whether the surtaxes continue or end.